Track record · closed signal

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from March 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 10, 2026 — -18.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$9.90 – $10.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.45Published — price the day we called it

$13.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$11.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.56

last close inside the window, ended June 10, 2026

Peak price

$11.61

peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.17

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$9.90 – $10.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.45

published March 12, 2026

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Novavax is getting real results now: it reported unexpected profit and struck a licensing deal with Pfizer, which together make the company look like it can execute rather than just survive. Those developments reduce near-term worry about the balance sheet. If biotech sentiment stays calm, buying on small dips could offer upside in the next quarter.

Primary drivers

Unexpected profit made the company more believable
Pfizer deal adds clearer revenue prospects
Price pattern favors buying on small pullbacks
Company progress looks better than sector noise

How it played out

NVAX: target was not reached

Lyra published NVAX at $10.45 on 2026-03-12, with a short-term expectation of 26% growth. The thesis pointed to unexpected profit, a Pfizer licensing deal, clearer revenue prospects, a price pattern that favored small pullbacks, and company progress that looked better than sector noise.

Inside the window, NVAX rose to a peak of $11.61 on 2026-05-27, a gain of 11.1%. That stayed below the $13.17 target. It never got there. By 2026-06-10, the stock ended at $8.56. The thesis partially played out on the move higher, but missed the published target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals