Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from March 11, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 9, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 44 days.
The thesis — published March 11, 2026
TSM looks like a decent short-term rebound candidate, but it is not a clear sustained uptrend yet. Recent positive chip sales and stronger ties between Nvidia and MediaTek suggest more demand for TSM's advanced chip factories. Shares have fallen enough to interest bargain buyers, so consider buying gradually on dips instead of buying now at higher prices.
Primary drivers
- Overall chip demand is healthy, supporting factory orders
- Being a leading foundry helps from rising AI compute needs
- Shares have dropped enough to make a bounce more likely
- High trading volume makes staged buying easier to execute
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 44 days
Lyra published TSM on 2026-03-11 at 352.59 as a short-term rebound call. The expected growth was 15%. The thesis pointed to healthy chip demand, support for factory orders, rising artificial intelligence compute needs, a drop that could draw bargain buyers, and high trading volume that made staged buying easier.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 405.48 target in 44 days. It peaked at 450.16 on 2026-06-03, with a 27.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 427.92 on 2026-06-09. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter results. MarketWatch reported net income of TWD 572.4 billion and second-quarter revenue guidance of $39 billion to $40.2 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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