The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from March 10, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 8, 2026 — +19.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 38 days.
The thesis — published March 10, 2026
TD looks steady because it reported its best earnings yet, is buying back a lot of stock, and analysts raised their target. Those facts make the downside easier to bear if markets are only a little positive next quarter. Be careful: the stock still needs some recovery work, and we expect solid but not huge gains.
Primary drivers
- Very strong earnings boosted confidence in the bank
- Big buyback returns cash and helps limit downside
- Higher analyst target supports a clearer short-term outlook
- Public conference keeps attention on management and execution
How it played out
TD: target reached in 38 days
Lyra published TD at 95.84 on 2026-03-10 with a short-term thesis for 9% growth. The thesis pointed to its best earnings yet, a big buyback, a higher analyst target, and a public conference that kept attention on management and execution.
Inside the window, TD reached the 104.47 target in 38 days. The stock later peaked at 114.55 on 2026-06-04, with a 19.5% gain. It ended the window at 114.17 on 2026-06-08. The thesis played out and exceeded the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-05-28, TD reported second-quarter net income of C$4.25 billion, or C$2.43 a share. The same report said TD increased its dividend by 3.7% to C$1.12 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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