The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from March 10, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 38 days.
The thesis — published March 10, 2026
TD looks steady because it reported its best earnings yet, is buying back a lot of stock, and analysts raised their target. Those facts make the downside easier to bear if markets are only a little positive next quarter. Be careful: the stock still needs some recovery work, and we expect solid but not huge gains.
Primary drivers
- Very strong earnings boosted confidence in the bank
- Big buyback returns cash and helps limit downside
- Higher analyst target supports a clearer short-term outlook
- Public conference keeps attention on management and execution
How it played out
TD: target reached in 38 days
Lyra published TD at 95.84 on 2026-03-10 with a short-term thesis for 9% growth. The thesis pointed to its best earnings yet, a big buyback, a higher analyst target, and a public conference that kept attention on management and execution.
Inside the window, TD reached the 104.47 target in 38 days. The stock later peaked at 114.55 on 2026-06-04, with a 19.5% gain. It ended the window at 114.17 on 2026-06-08. The thesis played out and exceeded the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-05-28, TD reported second-quarter net income of C$4.25 billion, or C$2.43 a share. The same report said TD increased its dividend by 3.7% to C$1.12 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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