Track record · closed signal

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — closed signal from March 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 8, 2026 — -18% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVAX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.00 – $10.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.51Published — price the day we called it

$12.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$11.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$8.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+9.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$8.62

last close inside the window, ended June 8, 2026

Peak price

$11.61

peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$12.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.00 – $10.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.51

published March 10, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Novavax now shows real business improvement: it unexpectedly made money recently and signed a licensing deal with Pfizer. Those facts give a believable path for the stock to be valued higher soon. The biggest danger is unpredictable biotech news, but this recovery looks grounded in operations, not just hype.

Primary drivers

Unexpected profit makes the near-term business story stronger
Pfizer deal gives validation and possible steady revenue
Price trend is getting healthier but not yet overly stretched
Protein vaccine tech can support multiple commercial products

How it played out

NVAX: the target was not reached

Lyra published NVAX at $10.51 on 2026-03-10 with 18% expected growth and a $12.40 target. The thesis pointed to an unexpected profit, a Pfizer licensing deal, a healthier price trend, and protein vaccine technology that could support multiple commercial products.

Inside the window, NVAX rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $11.61 on 2026-05-27, a 10.4% gain. It never got there. By 2026-06-08, the stock ended at $8.62. The thesis partially played out on the early move, then missed the target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVAX signals