Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from July 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$238.93 Published $280.29 Target $288.10 Window close $310.53 Peak
$229.30 – $233.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$238.93Published — price the day we called it
$280.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$288.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 61 days.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$288.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
61
Window
July 24, 2025 – October 22, 2025

The thesis — published July 24, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$280.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$229.30 – $233.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$238.93
published July 24, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Sales jumped 36% last quarter and the company keeps 55 cents of every sales dollar as profit. Big AI customers have already booked its newest 3-nanometer factories through 2026. After a 10% pullback, the price is sitting near its recent average price. Possible work from Intel and attention at the August SEMICON event could bring more orders. At 23 times expected 2025 earnings, shares could revisit $260 soon.

Primary drivers

  • Newest 3-nm factories are sold out until 2026, keeping prices firm.
  • The $232-$236 range has already drawn stronger-than-normal buying.
  • Intel may hire TSMC, showing how hard it is to match its lead.
  • Lower spending frees cash, letting shares aim for the earlier $260 peak.

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 61 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-07-24 at $238.93, with 18% expected growth and a $280.29 target. The thesis pointed to sales up 36%, 55 cents of profit on every sales dollar, 3-nm factories booked through 2026, buying in the $232-$236 range, possible Intel work, and a path back toward $260.

Inside the window, the stock rose above the target. It reached the target in 61 days and peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 30% gain. It ended at $288.10, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, TSMC reported $33.10 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 40.8% year over year, and $14.77 billion in net income.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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