PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) — closed signal from July 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 70 days.
The thesis — published July 24, 2025
Temu is growing fast overseas, driving sales up 46% versus last year. A recent government boost lifted local market mood to its best in three years. The stock jumped in May on double its normal buying, yet it is still priced 35% lower than similar companies. When banks dropped their target to $112, nervous investors sold, letting the price drift toward its recent average. This pullback could set up a move to $128 within three months as new sales data and tariff news arrive.
Primary drivers
- Temu’s worldwide growth keeps order totals booming and adds profitable overseas fees.
- The May price jump on twice-normal trading hints that big funds are buying anew.
- Government aid lifted shopper mood; July sales data in mid-Aug could add another spark.
- Shares trade at 18 times next year’s earnings, cheaper than peers at 24, leaving room to rise.
How it played out
PDD: target reached in 70 days
Lyra published PDD at $118.46 on 2025-07-24 with expected growth of 15% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Temu's overseas growth, a 46% sales increase versus last year, stronger local market mood after government aid, heavy May buying, and a valuation of 18 times next year's earnings versus peers at 24.
Inside the window, PDD reached the $136.23 target. The peak was $136.84 on 2025-10-02, with a 15.5% peak gain, and it took 70 days to get there. By 2025-10-22, the stock ended at $130.06. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-25, PDD reported second-quarter revenue of 103.98 billion yuan and adjusted earnings of 22.07 yuan per American depositary share. The company also said revenue growth had moderated and that continued investment could weigh on short-term profitability.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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