The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from March 6, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 4, 2026 — +19.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 45 days.
The thesis — published March 6, 2026
TD reported very strong quarterly results and is returning a lot of cash to shareholders, which together make it a calmer, more reliable bank pick for the next few months. Sales and profits were especially strong, the company is buying back shares and raising targets, and current weakness looks temporary - likely a steady bounce rather than a fast, risky spike.
Primary drivers
- Very strong quarterly results improved near-term confidence
- Big buyback and steady dividend boost shareholder returns
- Current weakness creates a better entry than a broken stock
- Higher analyst targets help keep investor sentiment positive
How it played out
TD: target reached in 45 days
Lyra published TD at 95.07 on 2026-03-06 with 12% expected growth and a 106.48 target for the short-term window. The thesis pointed to very strong quarterly results, a big buyback, a steady dividend, current weakness as a better entry, and higher analyst targets as support for sentiment.
Inside the window, TD reached the target in 45 days. The peak was 114.55 on 2026-06-04, with a 20.5% peak gain. It ended at 113.75, still above the target. The published thesis played out, and the move exceeded the stated expectation.
What happened during the window
On 2026-05-28, The Wall Street Journal reported that Toronto-Dominion Bank lifted its dividend after a strong quarter for operations. The article said the bank announced a 3.7% dividend increase.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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