Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from March 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$133.29 Published $154.61 Target $112.94 Window close $137.30 Peak
$124.00 – $132.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$133.29Published — price the day we called it
$154.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$137.30Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$112.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$137.30
peak on April 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$112.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
March 5, 2026 – June 3, 2026

The thesis — published March 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$154.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$124.00 – $132.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$133.29
published March 5, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify is a clear growth leader with strong recent results and positive news about payments tied to Google's commerce system. That momentum makes the stock likely to keep rising in the near term, but it has already moved up a lot and can swing lower if the broader market gets nervous. The safer plan is to buy modest drops into support and aim for a short-term continuation.

Primary drivers

  • Recent strong results keep revenue and growth story intact
  • Integrations with big partners can help more merchants adopt Shopify
  • Positive investor sentiment can push the stock higher short-term
  • Wider market pullbacks are the main near-term risk

How it played out

SHOP: target missed after a 3% peak gain

Lyra published SHOP on 2026-03-05 at 133.29 with 16% expected growth and a 154.61 target. The thesis pointed to strong recent results, partner integrations that could help merchant adoption, positive investor sentiment, and wider market pullbacks as the main near-term risk. It expected a short-term continuation, while noting the stock could swing lower.

Inside the 2026-03-05 to 2026-06-03 window, SHOP peaked at 137.30 on 2026-04-21, a 3% gain. It stayed below 154.61 and never reached the target. The stock ended at 112.94. The thesis missed on the measured outcome.

What happened during the window

On May 5, 2026, Shopify reported first-quarter revenue of $3.17 billion, up 34%, and gross merchandise volume of $100.743 billion, up 35%. It also guided for second-quarter revenue growth in the high 20s percentage range and gross profit growth in the mid-20s percentage range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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