Track record · closed signal

Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) — closed signal from March 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 1, 2026 — -5.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INVA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$21.50 – $22.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.66Published — price the day we called it

$27.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$21.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+11.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$21.51

last close inside the window, ended June 1, 2026

Peak price

$24.45

peak on April 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$27.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$21.50 – $22.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.66

published March 3, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has been beaten down but there are two clear supports: the company will buy back $125M of shares and an analyst raised their price target, which can attract buyers short-term. The price pattern still needs to settle, so consider buying small amounts on weakness and be ready to exit quickly if selling resumes.

Primary drivers

A $125M buyback gives a clear reason for the company to buy its own shares
Higher analyst target and recent talks can bring back investor attention
Stock is oversold, so a rebound can be quick if selling calms down
Plan small buys for dips because trading is thin and can swing sharply

How it played out

INVA: target was not reached by June 1

Lyra published INVA on March 3 at $22.66 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth toward $27.64. The thesis pointed to a $125M buyback, a higher analyst target, renewed investor attention, an oversold setup, and a plan to use small buys because trading could swing sharply.

Inside the window, INVA rose to $24.45 on April 20, a 7.9% peak gain. That stayed below $27.64, so the target was never reached. By June 1, the stock ended at $21.51. The thesis partially played out because there was a rebound, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All INVA signals