Track record · closed signal

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from March 3, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$96.33 Published $109.82 Target $110.73 Window close $114.26 Peak
$94.50 – $96.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$96.33Published — price the day we called it
$109.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$114.26Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$110.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 78 days.

Peak price
$114.26
peak on May 29, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$110.73
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
78
Window
March 3, 2026 – June 1, 2026

The thesis — published March 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$109.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.50 – $96.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$96.33
published March 3, 2026
Confidence
89%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TD is using very strong profit to buy back shares and is putting money into AI and digital services. That combination attracts investor attention and could push the stock higher over the next few months if interest-rate swings stay calm. The current dip is a chance to aim for the high-$90s if the recovery holds.

Primary drivers

  • Big profits and share buybacks supporting demand
  • Investments in AI and digital keep investors interested
  • Recent drop could set up a rebound over 0-3 months
  • Financial stocks can reprice quickly if rate swings calm

How it played out

TD: target reached in 78 days

Lyra published TD at 96.33 on 2026-03-03. The thesis expected 14% growth over a short-term window, with a target of 109.82. It pointed to big profits and share buybacks, spending on artificial intelligence and digital services, a recent drop that could set up a rebound, and calmer rate swings as possible support.

Inside the window, TD rose above the target. It peaked at 114.26 on 2026-05-29, with a peak gain of 18.6%. The target was reached in 78 days. The stock ended at 110.73 on 2026-06-01, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-28, The Wall Street Journal reported that Toronto-Dominion Bank raised its dividend after its latest quarter. The same report said adjusted earnings were C$2.38 per share and adjusted revenue rose 5.9%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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