Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from March 2, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 31, 2026 — +12.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$360.00 – $375.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$371.54Published — price the day we called it

$438.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$430.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$418.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+12.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+15.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$418.45

last close inside the window, ended May 31, 2026

Peak price

$430.55

peak on May 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$438.42

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$360.00 – $375.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$371.54

published March 2, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a top chip maker that just got a big, clear order from Apple for over 100 million advanced chips made in Arizona. That order makes upcoming sales easier to predict and strengthens TSMC's role in U.S. supply chains during uncertain geopolitics. Industry tools and ASML progress add to the view that demand for advanced chips tied to AI should stay strong, so buying modest dips looks preferable to chasing sudden price jumps.

Primary drivers

Apple's 100M+ Arizona chip order boosts near-term sales certainty
Leading-edge chip tech is key to AI infrastructure demand
ASML's tool progress supports next-gen chip capacity growth
Large-cap semi name can recover quickly after small pullbacks

How it played out

TSM: strong rise stopped short of the target

Lyra published TSM at $371.54 on 2026-03-02 with an 18% expected gain and a $438.42 target. The thesis pointed to Apple's order for over 100 million Arizona-made chips, demand for advanced chips tied to artificial intelligence, ASML tool progress, and the idea that a large semiconductor name could recover quickly after small pullbacks.

Inside the window, TSM rose to a $430.55 peak on 2026-05-27, a 15.9% gain. It never reached the $438.42 target. The window ended on 2026-05-31 with the stock at $418.45. The thesis mostly played out on direction, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had posted first-quarter 2026 results and raised its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending outlook. On 2026-05-27, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC planned to raise prices on 3-nanometer chips later in 2026, citing a media report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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