Track record · closed signal

Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) — closed signal from March 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 31, 2026 — -6.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INVA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.00 – $23.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.93Published — price the day we called it

$28.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$21.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$21.42

last close inside the window, ended May 31, 2026

Peak price

$24.45

peak on April 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published March 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$28.66

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.00 – $23.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.93

published March 2, 2026

Confidence

87%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Management laid out a clear three-part growth plan and announced a $125 million stock buyback, which can prop the share price if it dips. An analyst raised their price target and kept a positive rating, keeping attention on the stock. Because trading can be thin, buy in stages so you don't get hurt by sudden swings.

Primary drivers

$125M buyback can limit how far shares fall
Analyst target hike keeps investor interest active
Royalties plus new infectious-disease push strengthen growth story
Recent overselling could lead to a quick rebound when pressure eases

How it played out

INVA: the target was not reached

Lyra published INVA at $22.93 on 2026-03-02 for a short-term window through 2026-05-31. The thesis expected 25% growth to $28.66. It pointed to a $125 million stock buyback, an analyst target hike, royalties plus a new infectious-disease push, and the chance that recent overselling could lead to a quick rebound.

Inside the window, INVA rose to a peak of $24.45 on 2026-04-20, a 6.6% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached $28.66. The stock ended the window at $21.42. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but it missed the expected move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All INVA signals