Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) — closed signal from February 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$186.00 – $191.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$189.77Published — price the day we called it

$204.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$193.05Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$178.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$193.05

peak on May 19, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$178.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 27, 2026 – May 28, 2026

The thesis — published February 27, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$204.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$186.00 – $191.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$189.77

published February 27, 2026

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris is a relatively steady defensive pick for the next few months that you'd preferably buy when the price dips. Strong sales and momentum from its Zyn brand give a positive story, but the stock is more likely to move back to its previous trend than to suddenly jump in value. Main risks: currency swings and negative news about nicotine rules that could limit how high the stock can go.

Primary drivers

Zyn's strong sales help keep the product category growing
As a defensive company, it may hold up when markets fall
Buying on pullbacks gives clearer, smaller downside risk
Currency moves or nicotine regulation can quickly cap gains

How it played out

PM: target was not reached

Lyra published PM at 189.77 on 2026-02-27 with an 8% expected gain. The thesis pointed to Zyn sales, defensive demand, and better entry after pullbacks. It also named currency moves and nicotine regulation as risks that could cap gains.

Inside the 2026-02-27 to 2026-05-28 window, PM peaked at 193.05 on 2026-05-19, a 1.7% gain. That stayed below the 204.95 target, so there were no days to target. The stock ended at 178.57. The thesis only partially played out on price, and missed its stated upside goal.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-22, The Wall Street Journal reported that Philip Morris revenue rose 9.1% to $10.15 billion in the first quarter, while Zyn nicotine pouch shipments fell almost 24%. On 2026-05-15, The Guardian reported criticism of a new global Marlboro advertising campaign.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PM signals