Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$417.30 Published $467.38 Target $426.01 Window close $453.40 Peak
$400.00 – $420.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$417.30Published — price the day we called it
$467.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$453.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$426.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$453.40
peak on May 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$426.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 25, 2026 – May 26, 2026

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$467.38
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$400.00 – $420.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$417.30
published February 25, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla is a short-term, higher-risk trade tied to news about self-driving tech. Recent tests and funding make people react quickly to headlines, so the price can swing a lot in either direction. This means it may move up fast on good news but also fall quickly. If you try this, buy cautiously near safer price levels and add only after the price stays higher for a bit.

Primary drivers

  • News about self-driving tests and funding keeps interest high
  • Price can rise quickly if investors want more risk
  • Good headlines can lift short-term momentum fast
  • High swings in price mean add positions in steps

How it played out

TSLA: thesis partially played out but target was missed

Lyra published TSLA at 417.30 on February 25, 2026, as a short-term, higher-risk trade. The thesis expected 12% growth. It pointed to self-driving tests and funding, fast reactions to good headlines, stronger risk appetite, and high price swings that called for adding in steps.

Inside the window, TSLA rose to 453.40 on May 13, 2026, a peak gain of 8.7%. That stayed below the 467.38 target. The target was never reached. By May 26, 2026, it ended at 426.01. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On April 22, 2026, Tesla reported first-quarter revenue of $22.4 billion and net income of $477 million. The same day, Tesla said preparations for its first large-scale Optimus factory would begin in Q2.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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