Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from February 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$368.00 – $384.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$381.62Published — price the day we called it

$450.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$421.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$404.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 59% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$421.97

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+10.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$404.52

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 24, 2026 – May 25, 2026

The thesis — published February 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$450.31

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$368.00 – $384.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$381.62

published February 24, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is central to the AI chip supply chain and can keep strong profit margins even while building more factories overseas. That mix helps justify its valuation. Shares may fall when headlines question AI demand, so buying after a controlled drop and proof of a rebound reduces risk while keeping exposure to AI-related growth.

Primary drivers

Growing AI chip demand keeps advanced factory space in short supply
Stable profit margins help the stock's value even during big investments
Large trading liquidity means you can buy or sell without big price gaps
Buying after a dip can lower your risk compared with chasing gains

How it played out

TSM: target missed, shares peaked below 450.31

Lyra published TSM on 2026-02-24 at 381.62 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, tight advanced factory capacity, stable profit margins during overseas factory builds, large trading liquidity, and a dip-and-rebound entry setup. The target was 450.31.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 421.97 on 2026-05-14, a 10.6% gain, then ended at 404.52 on 2026-05-25. The thesis partly played out because the stock gained and stayed above the publication price, but the target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter sales of $35.9 billion and forecast second-quarter revenue of $39 billion to $40.2 billion. On 2026-04-17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC lifted its 2026 revenue guidance to over 30% growth and moved capital spending toward the high end of $52 billion to $56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals