Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from February 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$355.00 – $370.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$370.54Published — price the day we called it

$429.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$421.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$404.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$421.97

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$404.52

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 22, 2026 – May 23, 2026

The thesis — published February 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$429.83

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$355.00 – $370.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$370.54

published February 22, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC makes the chips many AI and high-performance systems need. Right now it is sensitive to big industry earnings and new tariff rules, so its stock can move up or down fast. Nvidia's upcoming report is the closest thing to a test of demand. Because of this volatility, it is safer to buy when the price drops and holds steady rather than chasing gains.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for AI and high-performance computing chips keeps factories busy
Nvidia results often signal demand trends for the whole chip supply chain
Tariff and geopolitical news can quickly push chip stocks lower
Buying after a drop helps limit downside in a volatile leader

How it played out

TSM: target was not reached

Lyra published TSM on February 22 at 370.54, with 16% expected growth and a 429.83 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips, Nvidia results as a demand signal, tariff and geopolitical risk, and a preference for buying after a drop rather than chasing gains.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 421.97 on May 14, with a 13.9% gain. It never got there. By the May 23 close of the window, it ended at 404.52. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On April 10, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1.13 trillion, above the analyst figure cited in the article. On April 17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had posted first-quarter results and lifted its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending plans.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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