Track record · closed signal

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHOP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$116.34 Published $139.60 Target $101.01 Window close $137.30 Peak
$112.00 – $117.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$116.34Published — price the day we called it
$139.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$137.30Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$101.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$137.30
peak on April 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$101.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 18, 2026 – May 19, 2026

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$139.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$112.00 – $117.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$116.34
published February 18, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shopify reported strong results and gave upbeat growth guidance, and the board approved a buyback that can help lift demand when the stock dips. The company is recovering from earlier weakness, so moves higher may be uneven until buyers clearly take control. Heavy trading suggests many investors are interested, but sentiment could cool and hurt the stock.

Primary drivers

  • Good quarterly results and higher guidance support growth expectations
  • Share buyback can create extra buying when the price falls
  • High trading volume shows strong investor interest before a possible rise
  • If investor mood shifts, the stock multiple could decline and slow gains

How it played out

SHOP: the target was not reached

Lyra published SHOP on February 18 at 116.34, with 20% expected growth and a 139.6 target. The thesis pointed to good quarterly results and higher guidance, a share buyback, high trading volume, and the risk that investor mood could cool and slow gains.

Inside the February 18 to May 19 window, SHOP rose to 137.3 on April 21, a peak gain of 18%. That stayed below the 139.6 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at 101.01. The thesis partly played out on the move higher, but missed the full target and ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On May 5, 2026, Shopify reported first-quarter revenue of $3.17 billion and operating profit of $382 million. It also gave second-quarter guidance for revenue growth at a high-20s percentage rate and gross profit growth at a mid-20s percentage rate.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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