Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025 — -13.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$757.23 – $767.19Entry zone — fair-value band

$764.02Published — price the day we called it

$800.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$812.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$661.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close

-13.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$661.39

last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2025

Peak price

$812.22

peak on July 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+5%

over the measurement window

Target price

$800.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$757.23 – $767.19

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$764.02

published July 21, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a 20% climb this year, the share price has cooled. Our momentum gauge is now very low, and similar readings in the past have often led to 6-8% rebounds. Excitement stays high because a 18 Jul article showed the company using artificial intelligence to convert more customers at checkout. With 30% cash profit margins and ongoing share buybacks softening any dip, we aim for $800 (about 5% higher) by tax season.

Primary drivers

Our momentum gauge says the stock looks oversold, so a bounce is likely.
News on 18 Jul about AI improving payments keeps excitement very high.
Big cash profits (30%) let the company keep buying back shares on dips.
Upcoming Investor Day and tax-season buzz give more reasons for movement.

How it played out

INTU: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published INTU at $764.02 on 2025-07-21 and looked for about 5% growth to $800.76. The thesis pointed to a cooled share price after a 20% climb, a very low momentum gauge, a 18 Jul article about artificial intelligence improving checkout conversion, 30% cash profit margins, buybacks, Investor Day, and tax-season buzz.

Inside the window, INTU reached a peak of $812.22 on 2025-07-30. It reached the target in 8 days, with a peak gain of 6.3%. By 2025-10-19 it ended at $661.39. The thesis played out early, then the stock gave back the move.

What happened during the window

On August 21, 2025, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.75 per share and revenue of $3.83 billion. On August 22, 2025, Investopedia reported that the stock fell premarket after the company's fiscal 2026 outlook came in below some analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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