Track record · closed signal

Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$764.02 Published $800.76 Target $661.39 Window close $812.22 Peak
$757.23 – $767.19Entry zone — fair-value band
$764.02Published — price the day we called it
$800.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$812.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$661.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

Peak price
$812.22
peak on July 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$661.39
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
8
Window
July 21, 2025 – October 19, 2025

The thesis — published July 21, 2025

Predicted growth
+5%
over the measurement window
Target price
$800.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$757.23 – $767.19
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$764.02
published July 21, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

After a 20% climb this year, the share price has cooled. Our momentum gauge is now very low, and similar readings in the past have often led to 6-8% rebounds. Excitement stays high because a 18 Jul article showed the company using artificial intelligence to convert more customers at checkout. With 30% cash profit margins and ongoing share buybacks softening any dip, we aim for $800 (about 5% higher) by tax season.

Primary drivers

  • Our momentum gauge says the stock looks oversold, so a bounce is likely.
  • News on 18 Jul about AI improving payments keeps excitement very high.
  • Big cash profits (30%) let the company keep buying back shares on dips.
  • Upcoming Investor Day and tax-season buzz give more reasons for movement.

How it played out

INTU: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published INTU at $764.02 on 2025-07-21 and looked for about 5% growth to $800.76. The thesis pointed to a cooled share price after a 20% climb, a very low momentum gauge, a 18 Jul article about artificial intelligence improving checkout conversion, 30% cash profit margins, buybacks, Investor Day, and tax-season buzz.

Inside the window, INTU reached a peak of $812.22 on 2025-07-30. It reached the target in 8 days, with a peak gain of 6.3%. By 2025-10-19 it ended at $661.39. The thesis played out early, then the stock gave back the move.

What happened during the window

On August 21, 2025, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.75 per share and revenue of $3.83 billion. On August 22, 2025, Investopedia reported that the stock fell premarket after the company's fiscal 2026 outlook came in below some analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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