Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from February 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$368.00 – $379.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$378.57Published — price the day we called it

$424.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$420.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$399.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$420.00

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+10.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$399.80

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 12, 2026 – May 13, 2026

The thesis — published February 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$424.00

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$368.00 – $379.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$378.57

published February 12, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a clear way to bet on long-term demand for AI and other high-powered chips. Recently it has rallied, so the main short-term risk is that the stock is already high and could wobble if supply-chain stories or memory costs hit headlines. For trades over weeks to months, it makes sense to wait for a reasonable pullback that holds before buying.

Primary drivers

Leader in contract chip manufacturing benefiting from AI spending
Coverage keeps investor interest and a positive story alive
Supply-chain cost worries can make temporary, buyable dips
Big-cap trading makes it easier to buy or sell in stages

How it played out

TSM: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published TSM at 378.57 on February 12, with 12% expected growth and a 424 target. The thesis pointed to contract chip manufacturing leadership tied to artificial intelligence spending, steady investor attention from coverage, possible supply-chain cost worries creating buyable dips, and the liquidity of a big-cap stock.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 420 on May 7, versus the 424 target, with a peak gain of 10.9%. It ended the window at 399.8. The thesis partially played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On April 17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC posted first-quarter results and raised its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending plan. The same report said the company described capacity as tight during the quarter.

TSMC raised revenue guidance and capital spending plan after first-quarter results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals