Track record · closed signal

Tesla (TSLA) — closed signal from February 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 12, 2026 — -0.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$420.00 – $440.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$434.34Published — price the day we called it

$486.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$449.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$433.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$433.45

last close inside the window, ended May 12, 2026

Peak price

$449.16

peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$486.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$420.00 – $440.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$434.34

published February 11, 2026

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla often moves quickly because lots of traders buy and sell it, so short-term price moves can be driven more by feeling than company results. The new plan to count FSD in some trade-ins strengthens the idea Tesla can make more money from software, which can excite buyers briefly. Because news can flip the stock fast, a cautious buy on pullbacks is preferred over chasing big moves.

Primary drivers

Customers may pay more for software like FSD, helping revenue grow
Lots of trading activity causes fast, short-term price swings
Investor enthusiasm can push price even if fundamentals are mixed
Buying within the range reduces risk from sudden headline moves

How it played out

TSLA: target was not reached

Lyra published TSLA at $434.34 on 2026-02-11, with a short-term thesis for 12% growth toward $486.46. The thesis pointed to software revenue from FSD, heavy trading activity, investor enthusiasm, and a preference for buying inside the $420 to $440 range instead of chasing moves.

Inside the window, TSLA rose but did not reach the target. Its peak was $449.16 on 2026-05-11, a 3.4% gain. It never got there. The window ended at $433.45 on 2026-05-12, below the publication price. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-16, Business Insider reported that Tesla had removed the one-time U.S. purchase option for FSD and moved it to a subscription model. On 2026-04-22, The Verge reported Tesla's first-quarter update, including $22.4 billion in revenue and $477 million in net income.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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