Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from February 11, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 12, 2026 — +4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$360.00 – $380.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$378.66Published — price the day we called it

$424.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$420.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$397.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+4.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$397.28

last close inside the window, ended May 12, 2026

Peak price

$420.00

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$424.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$360.00 – $380.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$378.66

published February 11, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a key supplier for chips used in AI, so demand is driving its sales and profit forecasts. The stock has already moved up a lot, which raises the chance of a sudden drop if overall market mood worsens. For short-term trades this quarter, it is safer to wait for a pullback into a clear buying range rather than buying after the big rise.

Primary drivers

Growing AI chip demand should keep factory orders high
Attention from funds and ETFs can keep money flowing in
Recent strong gains make a near-term drop more likely
Buying on a pullback gives clearer risk and reward levels

How it played out

TSM: target was not reached after a 10.9% peak gain

Lyra published TSM at 378.66 on 2026-02-11. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, fund and ETF attention, and the risk of a near-term drop after recent strong gains. It also favored waiting for a pullback into the 360 to 380 range.

Inside the window, the stock rose to 420 on 2026-05-07. That was a 10.9% peak gain, but it stayed below the 424.10 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-12, TSM ended at 397.28. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-17, TSMC reported first-quarter results and raised its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending expectations. On 2026-05-01, Investor's Business Daily reported that TSMC had introduced A13 chip technology at its 2026 North America Technology Symposium.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals