Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding (ASML) — closed signal from February 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,449.28 Published $1,594.21 Target $1,520.94 Window close $1,595.31 Peak
$1,400.00 – $1,460.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,449.28Published — price the day we called it
$1,594.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,595.31Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,520.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 86 days.

Peak price
$1,595.31
peak on May 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,520.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
86
Window
February 11, 2026 – May 12, 2026

The thesis — published February 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,594.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,400.00 – $1,460.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,449.28
published February 11, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML makes the machines most chipmakers need for the newest, fastest chips. Recent news shows chips are selling well worldwide, which helps ASML's long-term demand. However many investors are positioned in the group, so prices can swing a lot around economic news. Right now the stock is recovering from a drop, so treat it as a watchlist dip-buy and be patient on entry.

Primary drivers

  • Industry sales momentum supports long-term equipment demand
  • Leading product lineup benefits from AI-driven spending
  • Many investors in the same trade can make swings larger
  • Waiting for a pullback that stabilizes improves entry quality

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 86 days

Lyra published ASML at 1449.28 on 2026-02-11 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to demand for machines used in the newest, fastest chips, industry sales momentum, spending tied to artificial intelligence, crowded positioning that could make swings larger, and the need for patience on entry after a drop.

Inside the window, ASML reached 1595.31 on 2026-05-08, above the 1594.21 target. The peak gain was 10.1%, and the target was reached in 86 days. By 2026-05-12, it ended at 1520.94. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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