Track record · closed signal

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — closed signal from February 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$83.44 Published $98.46 Target $85.45 Window close $108.94 Peak
$81.00 – $84.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$83.44Published — price the day we called it
$98.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$108.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$85.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

Peak price
$108.94
peak on April 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$85.45
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
22
Window
February 10, 2026 – May 11, 2026

The thesis — published February 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$98.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$81.00 – $84.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$83.44
published February 10, 2026
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade tied to news about Netflix's planned deal with Warner Bros. Discovery. Regulators are closely reviewing the merger, and headlines can push the stock sharply up or down even though the streaming business itself is steady. Only buy if the price falls into the entry zone, use small trade sizes, and cut exposure quickly if regulators signal problems or if the market starts pricing the deal as less likely.

Primary drivers

  • News about the deal can make the price move fast
  • Lots of trading volume makes short-term trades possible
  • Netflix's market position gives some downside protection
  • Regulatory attention can make the stock swing more

How it played out

NFLX: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published NFLX on 2026-02-10 at $83.44, with 18% expected growth and a $98.46 target. The thesis pointed to Netflix's planned Warner Bros. Discovery deal, fast-moving headlines, heavy trading volume, Netflix's market position, and regulatory attention that could make the stock swing more.

Inside the 2026-02-10 to 2026-05-11 window, NFLX reached the target in 22 days. It peaked at $108.94 on 2026-04-16, a 30.6% gain, then ended at $85.45. The published thesis played out on price. It got there, then gave back much of the move before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On February 26, 2026, Netflix backed out of its Warner Bros. Discovery bid after Paramount offered higher terms. On April 23, 2026, Netflix announced an added $25 billion share repurchase program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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