Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from February 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$422.85 Published $528.56 Target $445.00 Window close $449.16 Peak
$405.00 – $430.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$422.85Published — price the day we called it
$528.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$449.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$445.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$449.16
peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$445.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 10, 2026 – May 11, 2026

The thesis — published February 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$528.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$405.00 – $430.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$422.85
published February 10, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla is being driven more by big stories about Cybercab and robots than by its short-term business results. Even after a positive earnings report, the stock can move a lot based on headlines and big-name investors buying it. That means big swings and gaps are likely; consider buying only small amounts when the price pulls back and seems stable.

Primary drivers

  • Big product and robot stories can move the stock quickly
  • Large investors adding positions can keep buying pressure
  • Many traders taking part helps make fast swings tradable
  • Earnings or product news often causes sudden price gaps

How it played out

TSLA: target missed after a 6.2% peak gain

Lyra published TSLA at 422.85 on 2026-02-10 with 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to big Cybercab and robot stories, large investors adding positions, heavy trader participation, and earnings or product news that could create sudden price gaps.

Inside the window, TSLA peaked at 449.16 on 2026-05-11, a 6.2% gain. That stayed below the 528.56 target. It ended at 445. The stock rose, but the published target was never reached. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On April 22, 2026, Tesla reported first-quarter results, with $22.4 billion in revenue and $477 million in net income. The same report said preparations for a first large-scale Optimus factory line would begin in Q2.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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