Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from February 7, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 76 days.
The thesis — published February 7, 2026
TSMC is a top supplier for chips used in AI, so demand can stay strong. But after a big move up, some reports say it might need to rest first. That means this is a disciplined buy setup: look for prices to dip into the zone and then stabilize before adding, rather than trying to buy while it's still running.
Primary drivers
- Strong AI demand should keep factory utilization high
- Debate over price levels can cause a pause and better buying chances
- Industry-wide strength may limit how deep pullbacks go
- Waiting for price stability reduces the chance of getting shaken out
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 76 days
Lyra published TSM as a short-term setup at 348.85, with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to strong demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, high factory use, industry-wide strength, and a possible pause after a big move. It also called for discipline, with the 332 to 352 entry zone meant to avoid chasing the stock.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 401.18 target. The peak was 420 on 2026-05-07, a 20.4% gain, and the target was reached in 76 days. The window ended at 411.68. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter earnings of $3.49 per U.S. share on $35.9 billion in revenue and gave second-quarter revenue guidance of $39 billion to $40.2 billion. On 2026-04-17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC lifted its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending view after those results.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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