International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
IBM’s share price has slid about 15% and is now near its long-term recent average price, a level where past declines have often paused. A momentum gauge suggests selling pressure may be fading just before results on 24 July. The company’s 30 billion dollar push into quantum computers and rising orders for its cloud services have lifted investor optimism. The stock trades at roughly 25% cheaper than big software peers, so it could bounce back to around 300-305 dollars within three months, though its slow day-to-day sales growth limits excitement.
Primary drivers
- Price drop and momentum reading hint the recent slide may be running out of steam.
- A $30B push into quantum tech keeps investors interested ahead of earnings.
- Shares trade about 25% cheaper than rivals, leaving room for a short-term bounce.
- Growing cloud orders support cash flow and a 3.6% dividend, reducing downside risk.
How it played out
IBM: target missed after a 6% peak
Lyra published IBM at 282.39 on 2025-07-20 with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a roughly 15% slide, a momentum reading that suggested selling pressure was fading, results due on 24 July, a 30 billion dollar quantum push, growing cloud orders, a 3.6% dividend, and shares trading about 25% cheaper than rivals.
Inside the window, IBM rose, but not enough. The peak was 299.39 on 2025-10-07, a 6% gain. It stayed below the 312.43 target and ended at 279.74 on 2025-10-18. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-23, IBM reported second-quarter revenue of 16.98 billion dollars and net profit of 2.19 billion dollars, according to The Wall Street Journal. On 2025-10-07, IBM announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic to integrate Claude into its development tools, according to MarketWatch.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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