Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 53 days.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
Alibaba's share price has climbed back above its recent average price and is showing very strong buying interest, yet the stock is still priced at only 10 times what analysts think it will earn in the year ending March 2025. Work to spin off its cloud division and an expected $39.5 billion wave of demand for computer chips in China could fuel growth. With the price moving between $118-$122, government stimulus in August and the usual stock-piling for Singles Day could lift the shares toward the mid-$150s within the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Strong recent buying shows the uptrend has returned after regaining key price level.
- China's $39.5 billion demand for AI chips could boost Alibaba's cloud business.
- Possible August government aid may lift shopping activity on Alibaba's platforms.
- At 10 times future earnings, the stock is 35 percent cheaper than similar firms.
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 53 days
Lyra published BABA at $120.23 on 2025-07-20, with a short-term call for 25% growth toward $150.29. The thesis pointed to renewed buying after the stock regained a key price level, cloud upside tied to $39.5 billion of chip demand in China, possible August government aid for shopping activity, and a valuation of 10 times future earnings, 35 percent cheaper than similar firms.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 53 days. It kept rising to a $192.67 peak on 2025-10-02, a 60.3% gain. It ended the window at $167.05. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-01, Business Insider reported Alibaba's latest quarterly results and said cloud growth and artificial intelligence product revenue drew investor attention. On 2025-09-24, Tom's Hardware reported that Alibaba announced Nvidia software integration and plans for more global data centers.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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