JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
JPMorgan shares are holding steady after most big banks topped spring earnings forecasts. Enthusiasm is high because the bank is testing new digital cash projects that could keep its big share of payment traffic. The stock looks reasonably priced at about 11 times next year’s profit, though upcoming capital rules could slow progress. If interest builds, the price could reach $310-$315 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Nearly all S&P bank stocks beat April-June earnings, lifting the whole sector.
- Digital deposit tokens could cement JPMorgan as the go-to bank for crypto-style payments.
- Strong buyer interest shows up in trading volume, hinting money is quietly adding shares.
- Shares trade at about 11x future profit, cheaper than rivals, which may cushion bad news.
How it played out
JPM: thesis rose but never reached the target
Lyra published JPM at $288.56 on 2025-07-20 with an expected 12% gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to broad bank earnings strength, digital deposit tokens, buyer interest in trading volume, and a valuation near 11x future profit. It also noted that capital rules could slow progress.
Inside the window, JPM rose to $315.05 on 2025-09-29, a 9.2% peak gain. That stayed below the $320.18 target. It ended at $296.22 on 2025-10-18. The thesis partially played out, but it never got there.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-14, JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter profit of $14.39 billion and earnings per share of $5.07, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report came before the 2025-10-18 window end.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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