Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from February 5, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 78 days.
The thesis — published February 5, 2026
TSMC is a strong way to own semiconductor exposure after recent selling. Management said they will speed up making the newest chips in Japan, which adds production capacity and spreads risk across locations. The stock may jump around, so the plan is to buy gradually when it drops rather than chasing quick rallies and assume a few months for recovery if the sector calms.
Primary drivers
- Japan production boost supports next-quarter growth
- Growing AI demand should keep factories busy
- Recent sell-off gives a buying opportunity in a big company
- More geographic spread lowers political risk concerns
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 78 days
Lyra published TSM at 331.54 on 2026-02-05 with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to faster newest-chip production in Japan, busy factories from artificial intelligence demand, a recent sell-off, and wider geographic spread as the setup. It also called for gradual buying inside 320 to 338.
Inside the window, the stock reached the 391.22 target in 78 days. It peaked at 419.7 on 2026-05-06, with a 26.6% peak gain, and ended at 419.5. The thesis played out. The price got through the target before the window closed and finished near its peak.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-05, TSMC announced plans to produce 3-nanometre semiconductors in Japan. On 2026-04-17, it reported first-quarter results and raised 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending expectations.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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