Track record · closed signal

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) — closed signal from February 5, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026 — +0% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

STOK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.00 – $34.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.27Published — price the day we called it

$40.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$40.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$33.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 95% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+0%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$33.28

last close inside the window, ended May 6, 2026

Peak price

$40.22

peak on March 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$40.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.00 – $34.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.27

published February 5, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Stoke is a stock where the recent trend and news matter more than finding a bargain. Company updates clarified when a big trial will progress and a new HQ lease signals plans to sell products later. The stock has not fallen a lot, so the plan is to buy small dips while demand for biotech is positive. Trade small because the stock can swing widely and trades lightly.

Primary drivers

Clearer late-stage trial timing focuses attention on milestones
New headquarters lease points to building a sales organization
Current upward trend makes buying dips preferable to chasing gains
Positive biotech sentiment could amplify moves in coming months

How it played out

STOK: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published STOK on February 5, 2026 at $33.27, with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to clearer late-stage trial timing, a new headquarters lease, the current upward trend, and positive biotech sentiment as possible supports. It also said the stock could swing widely and traded lightly.

Inside the window, STOK rose to $40.22 on March 10, 2026, a 20.9% peak gain. That stayed below the $40.59 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $33.28. The thesis mostly played out on direction and momentum, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All STOK signals