Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (ADR) (TSM) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$325.00 – $342.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$338.20Published — price the day we called it

$388.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$414.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$394.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

Peak price

$414.50

peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+22.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$394.41

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

February 4, 2026 – May 5, 2026

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$388.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$325.00 – $342.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$338.20

published February 4, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Demand for AI chips is creating shortages in parts of the semiconductor supply chain, making capacity at leading factories more valuable. That favors TSMC, but in the next 0-3 months the trade is to buy on dips rather than expect a steady climb. Prices can swing with sector mood, so enter gradually and only add if the stock stops falling.

Primary drivers

AI demand is creating tighter supply for chip makers
Top manufacturing gives TSMC a premium position
Industry spending supports demand over a longer period
Short-term sector selloffs can push the stock lower

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published TSM at 338.20 on Feb 4, 2026, with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence chip demand tightening supply, TSMC's top manufacturing position, longer-term industry spending, and the chance that short-term sector selloffs could push the stock lower.

Inside the Feb 4 to May 5 window, TSM reached the 388.93 target in 20 days. It later peaked at 414.50 on Apr 27, with a 22.6% peak gain. It ended at 394.41. The thesis played out. It got there, then stayed above the target at the close.

What happened during the window

On Feb 10, 2026, TSMC's board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and upgrades. On Apr 17, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter 2026 results and lifted its 2026 revenue guidance and capital spending toward the high end of its prior range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals