Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$430.41 Published $525.10 Target $390.82 Window close $436.35 Peak
$412.00 – $425.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$430.41Published — price the day we called it
$525.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$436.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$390.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$436.35
peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$390.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$525.10
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$412.00 – $425.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$430.41
published February 1, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla moves fast because stories about new tech, like humanoid robots, drive buying and selling more than the steady business results. A Morgan Stanley note highlighting robots pushed interest higher; that can push the stock up quickly but also cause big drops. For the next 0-3 months, treat this as a short-term trade and buy only on dips, not during sharp runs.

Primary drivers

  • Morgan Stanley note made the robot story louder
  • High sensitivity to AI and autonomy-related investor interest
  • Strong retail investor activity can push moves further
  • News and valuation swings can cause big drops

How it played out

TSLA: thesis missed the 525.10 target

Lyra published TSLA at 430.41 on 2026-02-01 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a louder robot story after a Morgan Stanley note, sensitivity to artificial intelligence and autonomy interest, strong retail activity, and the risk that news and valuation swings could cause big drops.

Inside the window from 2026-02-01 to 2026-05-02, TSLA peaked at 436.35 on 2026-02-11, a 1.4% gain. It stayed below the 525.10 target and ended at 390.82. The upside thesis did not play out. The stock briefly rose, then finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On April 22, 2026, Tesla reported first-quarter results with revenue of $22.4 billion and net income of $477 million. In April 2026, Tesla disclosed an agreement to buy an unidentified artificial intelligence hardware company for up to $2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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