Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
Intuit's share price fell about 20% and is back in the $740-$765 zone where buyers stepped in before. Fewer shares are being sold now, hinting that the selling wave is easing. The firm just hired AI experts from Crossing Minds, strengthening its GenOS platform. If late-August results confirm subscription sales up 20%, the stock could climb toward $790 within three months, especially since it is priced lower than many similar software giants.
Primary drivers
- Late-August earnings may confirm 20% subscription growth and renew growth story.
- Very low momentum reading plus fading selling suggests fall may be over.
- Crossing Minds team boosts GenOS, adding AI power built on 500M anonymous profiles.
- Price-to-growth ratio of 1.4 versus peers at 1.8 leaves room for shares to rise.
How it played out
INTU: thesis missed after an early 8.1% peak
Lyra published INTU at $751.26 on 2025-07-20 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to buyers returning in the $740-$765 zone, fading selling, late-August results that might confirm 20% subscription growth, the Crossing Minds team strengthening GenOS, and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.4 versus peers at 1.8.
Inside the window, INTU rose to $812.22 on 2025-07-30, a peak gain of 8.1%. It stayed below the $974.85 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-18, it ended at $661.39. The early bounce was real, but the published thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-21, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter results. Revenue was $3.83 billion, up 20%, and adjusted earnings were $2.75 per share. The company also gave current-quarter guidance after the report.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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