Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from January 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$342.71 Published $411.25 Target $392.34 Window close $414.50 Peak
$335.00 – $346.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$342.71Published — price the day we called it
$411.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$414.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$392.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 89 days.

Peak price
$414.50
peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$392.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
89
Window
January 28, 2026 – April 28, 2026

The thesis — published January 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$411.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$335.00 – $346.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$342.71
published January 28, 2026
Confidence
89%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM makes the advanced chips that power AI and big tech products, and recent industry news shows strong demand for more factory capacity. Because the stock ran up already, it's safer to buy if it dips a bit and then holds. If markets stay positive, TSM can keep rising as customers need more chips.

Primary drivers

  • Equipment orders show stronger demand for chip factory capacity
  • Control of newest production lines lets TSM charge higher prices
  • Big semiconductor status draws investor interest in good markets
  • Buying on pullbacks reduces the risk after a strong prior rise

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 89 days

Lyra published TSM on 2026-01-28 at 342.71 as a short-term setup with 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to equipment orders showing stronger demand for chip factory capacity, control of newest production lines, investor interest in good markets, and buying on pullbacks after a strong prior rise.

Inside the window, TSM reached a peak of 414.50 on 2026-04-27, above the 411.25 target. The peak gain was 20.9%, and the target was reached in 89 days. The stock ended the window at 392.34. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and production upgrades. On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of $35.9 billion and guided second-quarter revenue to $39 billion to $40.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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