Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from January 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$334.91 Published $381.80 Target $404.98 Window close $414.50 Peak
$326.00 – $338.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$334.91Published — price the day we called it
$381.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$414.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$404.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$414.50
peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$404.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
January 27, 2026 – April 27, 2026

The thesis — published January 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$381.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$326.00 – $338.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$334.91
published January 27, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a strong way to play the current surge in AI computing over the next few months, but news about China and geopolitics can quickly move chip makers. It's safer to buy gradually if the price drops rather than chase gains; calmer headlines could remove a risk premium and push the stock higher.

Primary drivers

  • Growing AI demand keeps factory schedules full and orders strong
  • If headlines calm, the extra price risk could shrink
  • Provides large, easy-to-trade exposure to top chip makers
  • Benefit from rising data center spending by big cloud companies

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published TSM at 334.91 on 2026-01-27 with 14% expected growth. The thesis pointed to full factory schedules from artificial intelligence demand, calmer geopolitics reducing extra price risk, liquid exposure to top chip makers, and rising data center spending by large cloud companies.

Inside the window, TSM reached the 381.8 target in 28 days. The peak was 414.5 on 2026-04-27, a 23.8% gain, and the stock ended at 404.98. The published thesis played out. It did more than reach the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-10, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$1.13 trillion. On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter earnings of $3.49 per U.S. share on $35.9 billion in revenue and guided for second-quarter revenue of $39 billion to $40.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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