Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) — closed signal from January 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$334.87 Published $408.54 Target $402.46 Window close $409.49 Peak
$326.00 – $336.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$334.87Published — price the day we called it
$408.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$409.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$402.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 89 days.

Peak price
$409.49
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$402.46
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
89
Window
January 25, 2026 – April 25, 2026

The thesis — published January 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$408.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$326.00 – $336.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$334.87
published January 25, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a clear way to benefit from companies building AI infrastructure now. Recent reports show more spending on data centers and TSMC raising its investment plans for 2026, which makes demand for its advanced chips easier to see. The stock ran up but is taking a breather, so the plan is to buy small drops near support rather than chase higher prices.

Primary drivers

  • Higher planned capital spending makes future chip demand clearer
  • Growing AI and data-center purchases keep factory work steady
  • Large scale and deep tech expertise make TSM a key supplier
  • A pause after gains can form a base for the next move up

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 89 days

Lyra published TSM on 2026-01-25 at 334.87. The thesis expected 22% growth, with a target of 408.54. It pointed to higher planned capital spending, growing artificial intelligence and data-center purchases, TSM's scale and technical depth, and a pause after gains that could form a base.

Inside the window, the stock reached a peak of 409.49 on 2026-04-24, with a peak gain of 22.3%. That reached the target in 89 days. It ended the window at 402.46, below the peak but still near the target area. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-10, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC's board had approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and production upgrades. On 2026-04-16, Investor's Business Daily reported first-quarter revenue of $35.9 billion and second-quarter revenue guidance of $39 billion to $40.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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