Track record · closed signal

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) — closed signal from January 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NFLX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$82.00 – $87.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$86.12Published — price the day we called it

$101.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$108.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$92.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

Peak price

$108.94

peak on April 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+26.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$92.44

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 24, 2026 – April 24, 2026

The thesis — published January 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$101.62

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$82.00 – $87.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$86.12

published January 24, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock is volatile after earnings: it fell while Netflix pursued a bid for Warner Bros. and paused buybacks, creating uncertainty and opportunity. Options activity is high, so price can swing quickly both ways. Treat this as a short-term trade for 0-3 months: buy only near the support zone and wait for the price to stabilize before increasing your size.

Primary drivers

Shows and the cheaper ad plan keep the growth story alive
The Warner Bros. bid could quickly change investor expectations
Earnings-driven swings make it suited to short-term trading
Buyback and cash decisions shape near-term market sentiment

How it played out

NFLX: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published NFLX at 86.12 on 2026-01-24 as a short-term trade for 0-3 months. The thesis expected 18% growth to 101.62. It pointed to shows and the cheaper ad plan, the Warner Bros. bid, earnings-driven swings, and buyback and cash decisions. It also said the stock was volatile after earnings and should be bought only near the 82 to 87 support zone.

Inside the window, NFLX reached the target in 72 days. The peak was 108.94 on 2026-04-16, with a 26.5% gain. By 2026-04-24, it ended at 92.44. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On February 26, 2026, Netflix declined to raise its Warner Bros. Discovery offer after Paramount Skydance won the bidding contest. On April 23, 2026, Netflix announced an added $25 billion share repurchase program.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NFLX signals