Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from January 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$239.16 Published $267.86 Target $263.99 Window close $264.50 Peak
$232.00 – $242.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$239.16Published — price the day we called it
$267.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$264.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$263.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$264.50
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$263.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 24, 2026 – April 24, 2026

The thesis — published January 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$267.86
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$232.00 – $242.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$239.16
published January 24, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon is still a long-term winner, but recent headlines about sellers raising prices because of tariffs can squeeze retail profits and make the stock jump around near earnings. If the cloud and advertising parts stay strong, these drops usually attract buyers. For a quick 0-3 month trade, look for price dips and wait until selling eases before buying.

Primary drivers

  • AWS and ads can make up for weak retail profits
  • Tariff headlines can cause short-term, buyable drops
  • Big logistics and Prime make the business resilient
  • Lots of trading interest keeps the stock liquid

How it played out

AMZN: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published AMZN at 239.16 on 2026-01-24 with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to AWS and ads offsetting weak retail profits, tariff headlines creating buyable drops, logistics and Prime making the business resilient, and high trading interest keeping the stock liquid.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to a 264.5 peak on 2026-04-24, for a 10.6% peak gain. It stayed below the 267.86 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 263.99. The thesis partly played out: direction was right, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-05, Amazon reported fourth-quarter results, with net sales of $213.39 billion and AWS revenue growth of 24%. The company also said it expected about $200 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, mainly tied to AWS and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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