Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) — closed signal from July 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$282.39 Published $312.43 Target $279.74 Window close $299.39 Peak
$275.18 – $279.09Entry zone — fair-value band
$282.39Published — price the day we called it
$312.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$299.39Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$279.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$299.39
peak on October 7, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$279.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 19, 2025 – October 17, 2025

The thesis — published July 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$312.43
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$275.18 – $279.09
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$282.39
published July 19, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM’s share price is hovering near its recent average right before its 22 Jul earnings report. Analysts expect profit per share to improve by about 8.6 %. More than nine out of ten large US companies have topped forecasts this season, so even a small beat could revive enthusiasm for IBM’s cloud-and-AI strategy and nudge the stock toward $305-310 during the next quarter. Options traders only price in a 4 % swing, hinting at much more room on the upside than the downside.

Primary drivers

  • Stock looks cheap just before the 22 Jul earnings update, which could renew interest.
  • Expected 8.6 % profit growth backs the idea that IBM’s recovery is on track.
  • New Watsonx AI projects should allow IBM to charge more and keep a bigger slice of revenue.
  • Options are cheap, letting investors set up low-cost protection or upside bets.

How it played out

IBM: target was not reached

Lyra published IBM at 282.39 on 2025-07-19 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to the 22 Jul earnings update, expected 8.6% profit growth, Watsonx artificial intelligence projects, and cheap options that implied a 4% swing. It expected the stock to move toward 312.43 inside the next quarter.

Inside the window, IBM rose but never reached the target. The peak was 299.39 on 2025-10-07, a 6% gain. That stayed below 312.43. By 2025-10-17, the stock ended at 279.74. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-23, IBM reported second-quarter revenue of $16.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.80. The same report said hybrid cloud revenue rose 16%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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