Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from January 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$334.87 Published $408.54 Target $402.46 Window close $409.49 Peak
$330.00 – $340.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$334.87Published — price the day we called it
$408.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$409.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$402.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

Peak price
$409.49
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$402.46
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
90
Window
January 24, 2026 – April 24, 2026

The thesis — published January 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$408.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$330.00 – $340.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$334.87
published January 24, 2026
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a top supplier of the chips many companies need for AI, phones, and high-performance computing. This week Nvidia became its biggest customer, and Intel's troubles make TSM's position stronger. The stock has moved up a lot, so the short-term plan is to buy during dips rather than after sharp spikes. News and geopolitics can make the price swing.

Primary drivers

  • Nvidia as the largest customer boosts steady demand for wafers
  • Competitor execution problems help TSM gain more business
  • Leading manufacturing at advanced chip sizes helps keep margins
  • Investor interest in chip stocks keeps attention and capital flowing

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 90 days

On January 24, Lyra published a short-term TSM thesis from 334.87, with an entry zone of 330 to 340 and expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to wafer demand from Nvidia, competitor execution problems, advanced chip manufacturing, and investor interest in chip stocks.

Inside the window, TSM reached 409.49 on April 24, above the 408.54 target. The peak gain was 22.3%, and the target was reached in 90 days. It ended at 402.46, below the peak but still near the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On April 10, 2026, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue growth and March sales growth, according to MarketWatch. On April 17, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC lifted its 2026 revenue guidance and moved capital spending toward the high end of its range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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