Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from January 23, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$320.00 – $336.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$332.94Published — price the day we called it

$426.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$382.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$382.66

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 23, 2026 – April 23, 2026

The thesis — published January 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$426.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$320.00 – $336.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$332.94

published January 23, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a good buy for the next 0 to 3 months because demand for AI chips is steady and factories are busy. Reports linking China platform demand to big Nvidia orders mean factories should keep running at high levels. Many retail buyers often buy on dips, helping quick rebounds. Use staged buying near support because drops can be sudden and deep.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for AI chips keeps factory usage high
China order headlines can lift the whole AI chip group
Retail buying after drops can speed up recoveries
Buying in stages reduces the chance of buying into a deeper selloff

How it played out

TSM: thesis partly played out, target was not reached

Lyra published TSM at 332.94 on 2026-01-23 with expected growth of 28%. The thesis pointed to steady demand for artificial intelligence chips, busy factories, China order headlines tied to Nvidia, retail buying after drops, and staged buying near support because declines could be sudden and deep.

Inside the 2026-01-23 to 2026-04-23 window, TSM rose to 390.21 on 2026-02-25. That was a 17.2% peak gain, but it stayed below the 426.16 target. It ended at 382.66. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but the target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-10, TSMC's board approved a $44.962 billion spending package for new fabs and capacity upgrades. On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of $35.9 billion and guided second-quarter revenue to $39 billion to $40.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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