Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) — closed signal from July 19, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 54 days.
The thesis — published July 19, 2025
Alibaba's share price is rising as Hong Kong markets hit a three-year high and talk between the U.S. and China becomes friendlier. Daily trading activity is about 40% higher than its 90-day normal, showing many more buyers than usual. Instead of chasing the jump, waiting for a dip to roughly $114-118 may give a safer entry. Strong cloud-service growth expected in August results could lift the stock near $160, clawing back about 30% of former regulatory cuts.
Primary drivers
- Hong Kong market hitting a 3-year high is drawing money into Chinese tech stocks
- New cloud and AI deals could speed up sales and profits by fiscal 2025
- Friendlier trade talks cut fears of the shares being delisted or hit with new tariffs
- Trading volume up 40% suggests big professional investors are stepping in
How it played out
BABA: target reached in 54 days
Lyra published BABA at $120.23 on 2025-07-19 with 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Hong Kong markets at a 3-year high, friendlier U.S.-China trade talks, trading volume up 40%, and expected cloud-service growth in August results. It also said waiting for a dip to $114-118 may give a safer entry.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $150.29 target in 54 days. It later peaked at $192.67 on 2025-10-02, with a 60.3% peak gain. By 2025-10-17, it ended at $167.05. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-29, Alibaba reported June-quarter results. Cloud Intelligence revenue rose 26% to 33.3 billion yuan. On 2025-09-24, Alibaba announced a partnership with Nvidia software and plans for global data-center expansion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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