The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) — closed signal from January 22, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 83 days.
The thesis — published January 22, 2026
The stock looks like it has been sold too hard recently and could bounce in the next 0-3 months. The bank said it will repay $1.25B of subordinated notes in early March, which shows active capital management and may calm some investors. Consider buying on pullbacks into the zone but watch for bad regulatory or credit news or a broad market selloff.
Primary drivers
- Repaying notes shows the bank is managing capital responsibly
- Heavy recent selling could reverse if demand steadies
- ETF flows and dividends can add steady buying pressure
- Bank results are sensitive to housing and regulatory news
How it played out
TD: target reached in 83 days
Lyra published TD at 94.24 on January 22, 2026, with expected growth of 10% over a short-term window ending April 22, 2026. The thesis pointed to a possible rebound after heavy recent selling, repayment of $1.25B of subordinated notes in early March, steady buying from ETF flows and dividends, and sensitivity to housing and regulatory news.
Inside the window, TD reached a peak of 106.93 on April 21, 2026, above the 103.66 target. The peak gain was 13.5%, and the target was reached in 83 days. It ended at 104.57. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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