Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$333.00 – $318.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$329.99Published — price the day we called it

$382.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$387.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+18.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$387.44

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 22, 2026 – April 22, 2026

The thesis — published January 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$382.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$333.00 – $318.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$329.99

published January 22, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is central to the short-term AI chip supply chain and benefits from steady demand for its advanced factories. New U.S. scrutiny over chip sales to China highlights the companys strategic importance but also means headlines can swing the stock. The plan: buy only on pullbacks into the entry zone and watch geopolitical news closely.

Primary drivers

AI demand keeps TSMC factories busy and helps revenue growth
Debate over export limits can change customer orders and value of secure manufacturing
Current favorable price trend helps momentum if semiconductor demand stays strong
Being a core supplier draws steady interest when investors favor risk assets

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published TSM on 2026-01-22 at $329.99, with expected growth of 16% and a target of $382.79. The thesis pointed to demand tied to artificial intelligence chips, steady use of advanced factories, export-limit debate, a favorable price trend, and investor interest in core suppliers when risk appetite was strong.

Inside the window from 2026-01-22 to 2026-04-22, TSM rose to a peak of $390.21 on 2026-02-25. That was above the target, with a peak gain of 18.2%. The target was reached in 33 days. The stock ended the window at $387.44. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-10, TSMC reported February sales rose 22.2% year over year and January-February sales rose 29.9% year over year. On 2026-04-16, TSMC reported first-quarter profit rose 58.3% and revenue was $35.9 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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