Intuit Inc. (INTU) — closed signal from July 19, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 19, 2025
The share price has slid about 22% into its usual lower range, yet it is still up 20% this year versus peers. A key momentum gauge shows sellers may be running out of steam. New AI bill-pay reminders lifted payments by 10%, and 77% of sales come from subscriptions, adding stability. With results due in late August and upbeat mood, the price could rise from $730-$750 toward $900, or about 20%, once the selling cools.
Primary drivers
- An oversold reading suggests the recent slide may be ending.
- New AI features are raising average customer spend and add-on sales.
- With 77% of sales from subscriptions, the company enjoys steady cash flow.
- Upcoming results in late August may confirm goals and attract buyers.
How it played out
INTU: the target was never reached
Lyra published INTU at $751.26 on 2025-07-19 with a short-term 20% growth case toward $899.86. The thesis pointed to an oversold reading, artificial intelligence features tied to 10% higher payments, 77% of sales from subscriptions, and results due in late August as possible support for a rebound.
Inside the window, the stock rose to $812.22 on 2025-07-30, a peak gain of 8.1%. It stayed below the $899.86 target and never reached it. By 2025-10-17, it ended at $661.39. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-21, Intuit reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.75 a share on sales of $3.83 billion. On 2025-08-22, Investopedia reported that Intuit shares fell in premarket trading after the company gave weaker-than-expected fiscal 2026 guidance.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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