Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from January 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$312.79 Published $344.07 Target $310.29 Window close $326.40 Peak
$305.00 – $315.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$312.79Published — price the day we called it
$344.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$326.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$310.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$326.40
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$310.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 19, 2026 – April 19, 2026

The thesis — published January 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$344.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$305.00 – $315.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$312.79
published January 19, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JPMorgan could bounce back because big swings in markets and hedging trades tend to help its trading and investment-banking businesses. But proposals to limit credit-card fees or interest create real headline risk that can quickly hurt the stock. Treat this as a short-term trade idea, start small, and wait for clear evidence the stock is turning up before adding more.

Primary drivers

  • More market volatility and hedging can lift trading and investment-banking revenue
  • If investors move money back into banks, the sector can rebound
  • Proposals limiting card fees or interest could weigh on profits and sentiment
  • As a big, liquid bank, buyers often step in when the stock steadies

How it played out

JPM: target missed after a 4.4% peak gain

Lyra published JPM on 2026-01-19 at $312.79 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to market volatility and hedging as possible support for trading and investment-banking revenue. It also pointed to a possible bank-sector rebound, while noting that proposals limiting card fees or interest could hurt profits and sentiment.

Inside the window, JPM rose to a peak of $326.40 on 2026-02-09. That was a 4.4% gain, but it stayed below the $344.07 target. By 2026-04-19, it ended at $310.29. The thesis partly played out on direction, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On April 14, 2026, JPMorgan reported first-quarter results. MarketWatch reported revenue of $49.84 billion, earnings per share of $5.94, and record markets revenue of $11.6 billion. The article also said commercial and investment banking revenue rose 18.9%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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