Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from January 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 19, 2026 — -0.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$305.00 – $315.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$312.79Published — price the day we called it

$344.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$326.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$310.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$310.29

last close inside the window, ended April 19, 2026

Peak price

$326.40

peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published January 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$344.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$305.00 – $315.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$312.79

published January 19, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

JPMorgan could bounce back because big swings in markets and hedging trades tend to help its trading and investment-banking businesses. But proposals to limit credit-card fees or interest create real headline risk that can quickly hurt the stock. Treat this as a short-term trade idea, start small, and wait for clear evidence the stock is turning up before adding more.

Primary drivers

More market volatility and hedging can lift trading and investment-banking revenue
If investors move money back into banks, the sector can rebound
Proposals limiting card fees or interest could weigh on profits and sentiment
As a big, liquid bank, buyers often step in when the stock steadies

How it played out

JPM: target missed after a 4.4% peak gain

Lyra published JPM on 2026-01-19 at $312.79 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to market volatility and hedging as possible support for trading and investment-banking revenue. It also pointed to a possible bank-sector rebound, while noting that proposals limiting card fees or interest could hurt profits and sentiment.

Inside the window, JPM rose to a peak of $326.40 on 2026-02-09. That was a 4.4% gain, but it stayed below the $344.07 target. By 2026-04-19, it ended at $310.29. The thesis partly played out on direction, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On April 14, 2026, JPMorgan reported first-quarter results. MarketWatch reported revenue of $49.84 billion, earnings per share of $5.94, and record markets revenue of $11.6 billion. The article also said commercial and investment banking revenue rose 18.9%.

Here's the 'biggest single reason' gas prices haven't hurt consumers, according to JPMorgan

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All JPM signals