Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$348.61 Published $400.90 Target $363.35 Window close $390.21 Peak
$335.00 – $348.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$348.61Published — price the day we called it
$400.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$363.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$390.21
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$363.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 16, 2026 – April 16, 2026

The thesis — published January 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$400.90
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$335.00 – $348.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$348.61
published January 16, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a central beneficiary of recent positive news and strong earnings talk in the chip sector, so investors are favoring big chip makers. The main risk is timing: the stock moved up quickly and might need to pause before rising more. For a short-term (0-3 month) approach, buying after a pullback that holds the trend is safer than chasing the top.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making chips used for growing AI computing demand
  • Recent positive headlines have pushed attention and money toward chip makers
  • Large scale and technical edge help TSMC keep premium customers
  • Waiting for a pullback first can lower risk after a steep price run

How it played out

TSM: thesis partially played out but target was missed

Lyra published TSM at 348.61 on 2026-01-16 with 15% expected growth and a 400.90 target by 2026-04-16. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence computing demand, positive attention on chip makers, TSMC's scale and technical edge, and the idea that waiting for a pullback could lower risk after a fast rise.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 390.21 on 2026-02-25, with an 11.9% gain. It never got there. By 2026-04-16, it ended at 363.35. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-16, AP reported that TSMC posted a record January to March profit and gave second-quarter revenue guidance. The report also said the company warned about cost pressure tied to the Iran war. This was reported as company news during the window, not as the cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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