Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$335.00 – $350.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$343.79Published — price the day we called it

$405.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$375.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$375.10

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 15, 2026 – April 15, 2026

The thesis — published January 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$405.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$335.00 – $350.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$343.79

published January 15, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is central to the current AI chip boom. It reported a strong quarter and plans bigger investments through 2026, which helps suppliers and keeps factory demand visible. Trade tensions add uncertainty, but exemptions for US AI infrastructure limit disruption. Consider buying during consolidation and holding as post-earnings momentum plays out over a few months.

Primary drivers

Strong quarter and bigger 2026 investments improve visibility
Growing AI chip demand keeps factories busy and pricing strong
Tariff exceptions for AI infrastructure reduce short-term disruption
Market leadership can help sustain gains in the next 0-3 months

How it played out

TSM: thesis partially played out, target missed

Lyra published TSM at 343.79 on January 15, 2026, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to a strong quarter, bigger 2026 investments, demand tied to artificial intelligence chips, tariff exceptions for related infrastructure, and market leadership over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window, TSM rose but did not reach 405.67. Its peak was 390.21 on February 25, 2026, with a peak gain of 13.5%. It ended the window at 375.10. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On January 15, 2026, TSMC reported record 2025 profit and guided for higher first quarter sales. On the same date, Axios reported that TSMC was speeding up its Phoenix expansion and planned to open its second fabrication plant next year instead of 2028.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals