Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from January 11, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$312.00 – $325.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$323.63Published — price the day we called it

$375.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$390.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$370.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

Peak price

$390.21

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+20.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$370.60

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 11, 2026 – April 11, 2026

The thesis — published January 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$375.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$312.00 – $325.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$323.63

published January 11, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Earnings on Jan. 15 could change near-term expectations after a recent strong move. Because the stock has already run up, the safer approach is to wait for a pullback or to see how the market reacts to the report rather than buying right before the release. This reduces the chance of getting caught in sudden swings.

Primary drivers

Near-term price move tied to Jan. 15 earnings
Rising demand for AI and high-performance computing chips
Market attention from being the top contract chip maker
Chance of continued gains if guidance supports momentum

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published TSM at 323.63 on Jan. 11 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to Jan. 15 earnings as the near-term test, demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing chips, attention around TSM as the top contract chip maker, and possible continued gains if guidance supported momentum.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 375.41 target in 31 days. It later peaked at 390.21 on Feb. 25, a 20.6% gain. By Apr. 11, it ended at 370.60. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 15, 2026, TSMC reported record 2025 results and first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion. On Jan. 15, 2026, Axios reported that TSMC was accelerating its Phoenix expansion timeline after the earnings report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals