Alcoa Corporation (AA) — closed signal from July 18, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025 — +22.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 82 days.
The thesis — published July 18, 2025
Even after paying an extra $115 million in tariffs, Alcoa made more money than experts expected. A major bank still believes the shares can reach $35, and confidence around the stock is high. Aluminum prices have climbed 6% since early July on hopes China will pump money into its economy, which widens Alcoa's profit margins. If costs fall further, the share price could return to the low-to-mid $30s in the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- Big bank still targets $35 after Alcoa beat earnings despite tariffs
- Aluminum up 6% this month, improving selling prices and profits
- Stronger trading interest shows more buyers stepping in after long lull
- Lower tariffs or new China spending could lift profits even faster
How it played out
AA: target reached in 82 days
Lyra published AA at $30.27 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to earnings above expectations despite $115 million in tariffs, a major bank target of $35, aluminum up 6% since early July, stronger trading interest, and possible help from lower tariffs or new China spending.
Inside the window, AA reached the $36.10 target. It peaked at $37.99 on 2025-10-09, 82 days after publication, with a 25.5% gain at the peak. It ended the window at $37.03 on 2025-10-16. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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