Alcoa Corporation (AA) — closed signal from July 18, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 82 days.
The thesis — published July 18, 2025
Even after paying an extra $115 million in tariffs, Alcoa made more money than experts expected. A major bank still believes the shares can reach $35, and confidence around the stock is high. Aluminum prices have climbed 6% since early July on hopes China will pump money into its economy, which widens Alcoa's profit margins. If costs fall further, the share price could return to the low-to-mid $30s in the next quarter.
Primary drivers
- Big bank still targets $35 after Alcoa beat earnings despite tariffs
- Aluminum up 6% this month, improving selling prices and profits
- Stronger trading interest shows more buyers stepping in after long lull
- Lower tariffs or new China spending could lift profits even faster
How it played out
AA: target reached in 82 days
Lyra published AA at $30.27 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to earnings above expectations despite $115 million in tariffs, a major bank target of $35, aluminum up 6% since early July, stronger trading interest, and possible help from lower tariffs or new China spending.
Inside the window, AA reached the $36.10 target. It peaked at $37.99 on 2025-10-09, 82 days after publication, with a 25.5% gain at the peak. It ended the window at $37.03 on 2025-10-16. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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